We start the countdown to the Breeders Cup as Keeneland kicks off there fall meet and we have Belmont at the Big A in full swing. A nice 11 race card and we are on the turf. I will be locked in to taking down the early double (Races 1 & 2) and a spot pick 3 (Races 6-8). Big Pete will provide a couple of his "Plays of the Day" and close out the card with the late pick 3 (Races 9-11). We appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $5.00 Early Double:
R1: 2, 4, 7
R2: 5
Cost: $15.00
Little Pete's $2.00 Spot Pick 3:
R6: 1, 4, 7, 8
R7: 1, 4, 6
R8: 2
Cost: $12.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R9: 1, 3, 6, 8
R10: 1, 2, 4
R11: 1, 2, 9, 10
Cost: $ 48.00
Little Pete's Early Double:
Race 1:
(2) Every Time and (4)Lexi's Spirit are two horses that have a race under their belt and showed enough in the debut to warrant a play in here. (2) Every Time is going to find the rail early and be forwardly placed and the cut back in distance should only play into this horse's stamina. (4) Lexi's Spirit is another horse that will show more speed in here adn find a nice stalking position behind the early pace and wait for the moment to run her best down the stretch. The last play will be on the Chad Brown horse in (7) Ein Gedi who is training extremely well coming into this one and just too much of a threat to leave off the ticket.
$3.00 WPS 2 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 2,4,7 Cost: $12.00
Race 2:
Being the short field that it is, it either turns into an ALL race or have a backbone and choose just one. I am going to take the ladder strictly on the appearance of making a stand; congrats to me. (5) Dot's Dollar is a horse ascending at the moment and I like Jose Lezcano getting the mount again in here. The drop in class does not worry me and we should expect a forward score on this one.
$5.00 WPS 5 Cost: $15.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
6.5F for the 12.5K claimers and IMO, these geldings are in (3) O’TROUBLE. He was claimed last time at the Spa and given a little breather. He responded by posting two solid works, one at 4F and the other at 5F. Lynch plays the weight game with Gomez up and he is riding with confidence again why the big boys are out of town. He best two races have come on this oval so the horse for course angle gets tested today. The 7:2 ML is fair and I’m all in.
I’ll use him with (4) Double Shot and (5) In Sky We Trust
$ 7.00 WPS 3 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex Box 3, 4, 5 Cost $ 18.00
We’ll also use (3) O’ Trouble in R3 and try to cash a DAILY DOUBLE play.
We’ll use (6) In Good Trouble and (9) Smokie Eyes in the 4th.
$ 7.00 Double 3 w/ 6, 9 Cost $ 14.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 5:
Only five showed up for the G2 Vosburgh. It looks more like a NW3X event. The hot colt is (4) ELITE POWER as he has rattled off 3 straight and showing no signs of letting up. As I mentioned, there isn’t a lot of fire power in here so a similar effort should be enough.
(3) Eastern Bay and (2) Jalen Journey to round out the 2nd slot.
$ 7.00 WPS 4 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Ex 4 w/ 2, 3 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 6:
This is a tough start to the pick 3 and most likely will be the make or break race as to if this ticket will cash. I will rely on 4 horses in here to get us to the second leg. (1) Don'tLookBackAtAll was not heavily bet on debut which is surprising looking back at it (See what I did there?) with this horse having Flavien Prat aboard and being from the Clement barn on grass; this horse looks dangerous and fast. (4) How Lovely is an interesting horse in here shipping in to NY from the Justify lineage. I think this horse will only improve second time out and I think will be involved throughout. (7) Redefined has two impressive races under her belt and looks to be dangerous at a favorable 6/1 price. My last play will be (8) Personal Pursuit who should bring over that speed on to grass and be able to navigate a strong race throughout. Junior Alvarado has been performing well in these graded stakes races and he is a jockey to watch in here.
$3.00 WPS 1 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,7 w/ 1,4,7,8 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 4,8 w/ 1,4,7,8 Cost: $6.00
Race 7:
We are down to 5 horses in this Allowance race and I am going to select 60% of the field (3 of 5 is 60%; big numbers guy). (1) Judge Davis I think is very dangerous in here to the inside and I am not terribly concerned with the long lay off. This horse is training extremely well and garners the inside post. The speed should be on full display in here and not running into a horse of Mo Donegal's pedigree. (4) Ryan's Cat is a very interesting horse in here with the Alvarado bump. We should see a horse hungry for the lead in here and challenge their foes to pass late. My last play will be (6) Shipsational who has beaten better and has plenty of speed to search and find the early lead and be a step above the competition.
$3.00 WPS 1 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex Box 1,4,6 Cost: $12.00
Race 8:
(2) War Like Goddess is too good in my book and has vengeance on the brain this time out. This horse lost last time out on a rough trip and Lezcano will not let that happen with his first mount on this horse. We should expect this horse to be involved early with a slow pace and then be the much stronger horse late with a convincing win in here. I LOVE Gufo, but I think will have the advantage come stretch drive. This will hopefully help us get more favorable odds in here.
$5.00 WPS 2 Cost: $15.00
$5.00 Ex 2 w/ 3,7 Cost: $10.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 9:
(1) BALTASAR has the speed figures to be strong against these. He slowed down at the Spa but many do on that oval. He was given some time off and is looking for either one of his Belmont runs to re appear. If so, this one is over. I want to try an outsider in this bunch. (3) SKYLANDER has been on the turf for most of his career and Englehart claims him and goes right to the dirt. He may have saw something two back when he tried to go with Keepmeinmind. I like the cut back to 7F and Jr sticks for the ride. He’s working fast for this and should show more speed today. (6) CASH IN A FLASH is the speed and Atras picked the right guy to get him into the game early. If he gets a rest down the backstretch, he can hold on. (8) MAXIM MOMENT likes to come late but it usually is too late. He gets the cagy journeyman up for this though and he knows how to win.
$ 7.00 WPS 3 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 3, 8 w/ 1, 3, 6, 8 Cost $ 18.00
Race 10:
Clement sends out a pair in here and both look like the winner. (4) SHE’S A MIA was moving well last time but had to coast home through the stretch with a lot of traffic in front of her. Clear sailing might do it. (1) NEW GINYA has been knocking on the door since winning her maiden race and is a contender once again. Either can do it but I want the new face at this level. (2) TAPPLE CIDER has picked up her game in 2022. She came off a long layoff at the Spa in July and probably needed that one. She followed that up with a maiden score and a fast closing 2nd against open NW2L claimers last time. She looks like the Tonalist we were expecting to see last year and is a juicy 10:1 ML. I’m all in. Brown has (10) RUSSIARUSSIARUSSIA who usually runs well enough to get a piece. The outside will work against her but 2nd isn’t out of the question.
$ 7.00 WPS 2 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 2, 4 w/ 1, 2, 4, 10 Cost $ 18.00
Race 11:
(2) JOCOSITY is probably the filly to beat but I don’t trust her on the drop. She was in position to go on last time and she just didn’t fire. She gets an easier group which is why we’ll include but I must try to beat her. (1) OAK LOVES A FIGHT has had many chances at this level but just can’t get over the hump. She meets a suspect field today so she must be considered. I want the two outside runners to show up. (9) BOURBON DIVERSION came back from a long layoff and delivered a 2nd place finish at this level. Tagg gave her time to recover and she gets Davis for the re-ride. Today’s the day for her (10) MUCHO MAMA MIA tried to go with Succulent last time but couldn’t quicken like that one did. She meets a suspect group today and that matters. She’ll come late and will take a shot at Bourbon.
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