Things are heating up at Saratoga and I'm not just talking about the weather (Nice, Pete). We are looking to attack each of the 10 races on today's card. I will be looking to take down the early double (Races 1-2) and a middle pick 3 (Races 5-7) . Big Pete will have his full breakdown on his "Play of the Day" and the late pick 3 (Races 8-10). We appreciate you taking a look at this write-up and GOOD LUCK.
Little Pete's $1.00 Early Double:
R1: 1, 3, 4, 5
R2: 1, 3, 6
Cost: $12.00
Little Pete's $ 1.00 Spot Pick 3:
R5: 1, 6, 8, 9
R6: 1, 2, 4
R7: 1, 4, 6, 7
Cost: $ 48.00
Big Pete's $ 1.00 Late Pick 3:
R8: 2, 3, 6
R9: 4, 5, 6
R10: 2, 7, 8, 10
Cost: $ 36.00
Little Pete's Early Double:
Race 1:
(5) Dataman is my top pick in here under Rosario who is the son of Tapit and should explode late down the stretch in this grass sprint. (3) Alibi Ike switches surfaces and should possess plenty of speed early to find a forwardly placed position. This horse should be able to run with the early speed and kick into a second gear late. (4) Alexis Zorba is owned by Peter Brant and is making his US debut in here; I do not love this horse in here, but those International horses sure do know how to run on grass. My last play is going to be the one remaining Pletcher entry in (1) Clubhouse. I think Flavien Prat will be kicking in late down the stretch and trust him to give this horse a great ride from the inside positioning.
$3.00 WPS 5 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 3,5 w/ 1,3,4,5 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 1,4 w/ 1,3,4,5 Cost: $6.00
Race 2:
The entries will be extremely difficult to beat in here and I am not going to look further out then these two. I am assuming the masses will be clicking the ALL button in Race 1 to play in to the Chad Brown horses. With that said, the switch in surfaces second time out for both the (3) The Prince's Spur and (6) Oglethorpe are very interesting to me. Both of these horses held a strong close at this distance at dirt and the pedigree for both should suit well to turf. I know we will get a decent price on both of these horses and could play right into our hands for a nice paying double!
$3.00 WPS 3 Cost: $9.00
$3.00 Ex 3 w/ 1,6 Cost: $6.00
$2.00 Ex 1,6 w/ 1,3,6 Cost: $8.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 3:
(2) HAMMERIN AAMER has raised his game over the past year and a half. 13 for 21 hitting the board with 7 wins in that time frame. If he can navigate the one hole from the chute and settle just behind, Carmouche can tip out coming into the stretch and grab them late.
(5) Amount has the connections and (7) American Rule has the speed.
$ 7.00 WPS 2 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 2 w/ 5, 7 Cost $ 14.00
We’ll also use (2) Hammerin Aamer in R3 and try to crash in on a DAILY DOUBLE play.
We’ll use the Nyquist filly (4) Whiskey Lullaby and the Irish Bred (7) I’m Glad in the 4th.
$ 7.00 Double 2 w/ 4, 7 Cost $ 14.00
Big Pete's "Play of the Day":
Race 4:
With Beachfront Bid coming out, the odds for everyone else will drop in half. Still 4:1 ML +- on (4) WHISKEY LULLABY feels like a bargain. He dropped to this level last time and responded well to get the show. I like the move back to Lezcano and more distance should not be a problem with the Giant Causeway influence underneath.
$ 7.00 WPS 4 Cost $ 21.00
$ 7.00 Exacta 4 w/ 6, 7 Cost $ 14.00
Little Pete's Spot Pick 3:
Race 5:
The entries both have a shot in here and is a must play in my opinion; let's include. The horse I really like in here is (9) Sonic Speed who should benefit from being outside in this one with their running style and Manny should be shooting down the stretch late with a fresh horse. (6) Our Country is in very good form right now and Flavien runs differently on grass. This horse is going to be in a nice position late and that could mean all the difference. (8) Future Victory makes the cut in here for me, but this is the type of favorite I like to try and beat. This horse failed at Monmouth twice as the favorite and it looks like Pletcher is looking to cut ties. This horse has enough skill to win at this level alone, so that is why I am including.
$3.00 WPS 9 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 1,9 w/ 1,6,8,9 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 6,8 w/ 1,6,8,9 Cost: $6.00
Race 6:
Rudy Rodriguez is a must play when he has a horse coming in after a debut defeat. The improvement each one of his horses has second time out is a consistent bet for me. Irad gets the mount on (4) Slow Decision and I am confident in this horse to get it done. (1) Ria's Angel sustains big runs each time out on the track and if Trevor can leverage the inside position in here, then this horse will be a tough beat late. My last play is going to be a wild card in (2) Southern Civility. This horse had a disaster race in the only dirt race of this horses short career and Dylan Davis is taking the call again in here. I think with some better luck that this horse will be a different animal then what the PP's have shown and for that reason I am in.
$3.00 Ex Box 1,2,4 Cost: $18.00
Race 7:
(1) KeepMeInMind is almost a year on the bench, but maintains position in an Allowance race and training absolutely lights out. There is nothing that signals this horse will not be ready for the moment, but rust can set in quick when the gates open. (6) Tiwanaku is a horse I really like in here with the strategy of trying to win this race on the lead. This horse has proven the ability to wire the field and has shown grit doing it. (7) Efficiency is facing winners for the first time and I think will be the freshest horse in here stretching out. This horse is finding a second gear and will be extremely tough in here. If it is a speed battle early in here then I am going to go with (4) Naval Aviator to eat up ground late.
$3.00 WPS 6 Cost: $9.00
$2.00 Ex 6,7 w/ 1,4,6,7 Cost: $12.00
$1.00 Ex 1,4 w/ 1,4,6,7 Cost: $6.00
Big Pete's Late Pick 3:
Race 8:
My daughter’s name is Melissa and she can be Sassy at times but the filly, (6) SASSY MELISSA is also one you don’t want to messy with. She usually comes with a kick late and the 5.5F may not work in her favor. I’ll use but try to beat her with (2) GET THE CANDY up front. Saez will get her into position early to try and steal this one. She clearly needed some races to find her 2021 form and I think she finds it today. (3) KOKOPELLI has done everything right in her short career. The 7F may have been too far or the soft turf may not be her thing. She looks to be the filly to beat and is a must use. If the 9:2 ML holds, send it in. The wise guy pick is (10) ITSAKEYPER. Her last W came here last year at the Spa where she caught Get The Candy. Maybe lightning strikes twice. She’s worth the 20:1ML for your exotic plays.
$ 7.00 WPS 2 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex 2, 3 w/ 2, 3, 6, 10 Cost $ 18.00
Race 9:
It would be difficult for me to leave both of the Brown runners off this ticket. (5) DOLCE ZEL has a G3 win already and was competitive in both G2 events. Irad will be a handful on this one. (6) EMINENT VICTOR won a public workout when she shipped in to Brown’s barn. Now he’s had more time with her which will make her stable mate have to earn it. (4) KOALA PRINCESS was your Breeders Cup favorite back in Nov. Rosario is not asked back so McCarthy is summoned. She makes her 2022 debut and has run faster than these in the past. I want all of this 9:2 ML and hoping she’s ready to fire at first asking.
$ 7.00 WPS 4 Cost $ 21.00
$ 3.00 Ex Box 4, 5, 6 Cost $ 18.00
Race 10:
(8) LET HER INSPIRE U is fast and responded to L1 breaking her maiden last time. She will be short odds and faces winners for the first time. Both are not what I like to bet on so I’ll just use defensively. I think the winner will be one of the Ortiz bro’s. The question is which one? I’ll lean on Jose today on (7) LEELOO as this Practical Joke responded well to L1 last time. Her bullet gate move last month in KEE makes her dangerous in here. (10) READY A.P. will likely show speed and will need to save ground somehow. If they can get close to the rail early, she’ll be tough to catch. The rank outsider for me is the (2B) TRUE EMPRESS. She posted higher figures than most of these runners earlier in the year. Then was gaining on a tough Thinking It Over two back before the Bouwerie, where she was over her head and may have bled?? Lasix is added again. The cut back to 6F is perfect for her.
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